Xeneta’s January 2026 briefing reports a 7% increase in global chargeable weight, though this is largely attributed to the timing of the Lunar New Year. Crucially, e-commerce exports from China have declined for the first time in four years, with China-to-US volumes falling by over 50% for three consecutive months.
For NAP members, this signals a shift in capacity dynamics. The reduction in e-commerce “filler” cargo will likely ease the space constraints seen in 2024 and 2025. This provides a strategic opening for specialists to negotiate more stable space on key corridors where spot rates have remained surprisingly resilient, such as the Transatlantic westbound route (+3%).
Stakeholders should prepare for a potential modal shift. As the Gemini partners (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) begin testing Suez Canal transits again, the urgency that drove shippers to airfreight may diminish by Q2. recommend prioritizing high-value, time-sensitive verticals (Pharma, Tech, AOG) that are less susceptible to the e-commerce slowdown and maritime normalization.
Original Source: Xeneta / TIACA January 2026 Economic Briefing
