This article is part of the NAP Air Cargo Market Outlook series, Neutral Air Partner’s data-driven analysis of global air cargo trends, powered by Rotate.
The global air cargo industry is currently navigating an unprecedented “Capacity Shock” triggered by the sudden escalation of conflict in the Middle East. While 2026 began with 31 consecutive months of demand growth—the longest streak in IATA history, the market reset on March 1st following the closure of commercial airspace across key regional hubs.
The 520,000-Tonne Deficit
The immediate impact of the Middle East conflict saw global air cargo capacity plummet by as much as 22% in a single day. While operational adjustments have allowed for a partial recovery, total international capacity remains 10% below projected levels as of mid-March.
Over the last two weeks, the industry has lost more than 520,000 tonnes of international cargo capacity. This volume is equivalent to losing over two full days of global capacity within a 14-day window.
The Gulf Hub Squeeze
The conflict has directly impacted roughly 13% of global air cargo capacity, primarily through the suspension of operations by major Gulf carriers. Combined, these carriers manage approximately 25,000 tonnes of capacity daily. The recovery at regional hubs is currently plateauing and remains highly fragmented:
- Abu Dhabi (AUH): Leading regional recovery at 66% of pre-conflict levels.
- Dubai (DXB): Recovered to 50% of average 2026 levels.
- Doha (DOH): Significant disruption persists, with only 17% recovery to date.
- Kuwait (KWI) & Bahrain (BAH): Capacity remains near zero.
The Asia-Europe Pivot
Carriers are aggressively rerouting to maintain supply chain continuity, leading to a massive surge in direct services that bypass the Middle East. Direct Asia-to-Europe capacity has jumped by 37% year-on-year as of late March.
However, this agility comes with a literal price. Roughly 23% of global demand is now squeezed into a narrow 150km-wide corridor over Azerbaijan. Flights forced to reroute via southern Saudi Arabian airspace face a 15% increase in distance and 1.6 additional block hours, adding approximately $0.22 USD/kg in incremental freighter costs.
A Volatile Outlook
Adding to the operational complexity, jet fuel prices have surged more than 53% since late February. The “spread” between jet fuel and crude oil has widened significantly, reminiscent of previous price hikes in 2022.
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About Rotate
Rotate is an air?cargo data and software company that helps airlines and airports turn market data into commercial action. Their products combine global air?cargo capacity and demand data with decision?support tools such as Sales Cockpit and Sales Steering, enabling carriers to optimize networks, pricing, and sales performance in volatile markets. letsrotate.com
