Global air cargo demand rose 6% year on year in August 2026, but the headline conceals a significant shift on the China–Europe corridor. Following changes to EU customs rules for low-value imports, Chinese e-commerce volumes declined sharply and airlines responded by withdrawing freighter capacity.
For freight forwarders, the message is clear: resilient global demand does not guarantee stable capacity or lower rates on individual trade lanes.
A resilient global market
According to Xeneta, global air cargo demand increased 6% year on year in August, following 5% growth in July.
At the same time:
- Global air cargo capacity remained flat year on year.
- Xeneta’s dynamic load factor increased three percentage points to 61%.
- Global spot rates averaged USD 3.13 per kg, 24% above August 2025.
- Spot rates declined 3% month on month, continuing a gradual easing from their May peak.
Demand is therefore growing faster than supply. Rates are softening, but the market remains favourable to sellers and there is little evidence of a broad capacity surplus.
Xeneta expects global air cargo demand to grow approximately 4% across 2026, higher than many forecasts at the beginning of the year.
China–Europe tells a different story
The strongest structural change is taking place in cross-border e-commerce.
On 1 July 2026, the EU removed the customs duty exemption for consignments valued below €150 and introduced a temporary €3 customs duty on qualifying low-value imports. The measure is intended to remain in place until the EU’s wider customs reform becomes operational. The European Commission provides further details on the new rules.
The immediate market response was substantial:
- Chinese low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell 25% year on year in July, according to Xeneta.
- European e-commerce imports declined 24% in July compared with June, according to Rotate data reported by Air Cargo News.
- Direct China–Europe freighter capacity initially fell 10% and subsequently reached 28% below June levels.
- Freighter capacity fell 78% at Madrid, 58% at Budapest and 35% at Liège.
- At origin, capacity declined 72% at Ürümqi and 28% at Hong Kong.
Most of the withdrawn capacity has not been redeployed to other markets. Some aircraft have moved towards transpacific operations, but global freighter utilisation has declined, including a 13.8% reduction for converted Boeing 747-400 freighters.
Why lower volumes have not produced dramatically lower rates
China-to-Western Europe spot rates averaged USD 3.85 per kg in August, down 6% from July after a much steeper 22% decline the previous month. However, rates on some of the busiest China–Europe lanes have since shown signs of firming.
This apparent contradiction is explained by the speed of airline capacity adjustments. When e-commerce demand fell, carriers quickly removed flights. Available capacity contracted alongside volumes, preventing the market from becoming heavily oversupplied.
The global demand increase and the China–Europe contraction are therefore not conflicting trends. They reflect a market that is increasingly fragmented by corridor, gateway and cargo type.
What this means for NAP members
- Do not assume weaker e-commerce volumes will guarantee cheaper space
Lower demand may create short-term buying opportunities, but airlines can remove capacity quickly. Forwarders should monitor actual schedules and allocations alongside market-rate data rather than relying on volume headlines alone.
- China–Europe planning must become gateway-specific
Capacity reductions vary widely between Madrid, Budapest, Liège and other European gateways. The same applies across Chinese origins. Alternative routings through less affected airports, combined with road feeder services or multimodal options, may provide better availability and pricing.
NAP members can use the network to compare conditions across multiple origins, destinations and airline relationships before committing cargo to a single gateway.
- Protect core capacity while keeping part of the portfolio flexible
A blended procurement strategy is particularly relevant in the current market. Core allocations can protect essential and time-sensitive traffic, while shorter commitments allow forwarders to benefit if rates continue to soften.
This is especially important ahead of the fourth-quarter peak. If Chinese e-commerce volumes recover while airlines are still operating reduced schedules, capacity could tighten quickly.
- Customs expertise is becoming a commercial advantage
The EU measure is changing more than landed cost. It is influencing fulfilment models, consolidation strategies, customs data requirements and the choice between direct-to-consumer parcels and bulk imports into European warehouses.
Forwarders that can advise customers on compliant, cost-efficient alternatives will be better positioned than those competing only on freight rates. This creates a clear opportunity for cooperation between NAP’s airfreight specialists and NeX eCommerce members.
- General cargo opportunities must be evaluated lane by lane
Reduced e-commerce pressure could make some capacity available for general cargo, pharmaceuticals, perishables and time-critical shipments. But where airlines have cancelled freighter services, the opposite may occur.
Members should identify where e-commerce capacity remains in the market and where it has disappeared before quoting longer-term business.
The outlook
The present slowdown may represent an adjustment period rather than a permanent decline in China–Europe e-commerce.
Xeneta points to the US market, where Chinese e-commerce exports initially declined following the removal of de minimis treatment but later recovered. Rotate also suggests that European e-commerce traffic could recover within 12 months.
For NAP members, the immediate priority is not to predict a single market direction. It is to remain flexible, monitor changes at route level and use trusted partners to identify capacity before the market moves.
