TAC Index data confirms that this year’s peak season is real.
The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) rose about 6 percent over the four weeks to 1 December, and then a further 6.5 percent in the week to 8 December, leaving the index only 2.3–3.3 percent below the same period last year.
In other words, 2025 has a strong but slightly less explosive peak than 2024, with demand proving more resilient than many forecasts suggested.
Key lane movements
China and North Asia still in the driver’s seat
- Hong Kong spot rates to the US and Europe surged through November. The broader Hong Kong outbound index (BAI30) climbed around 7.8 percent month on month to 1 December, and then another 2 percent week on week to 8 December, now only mid-single-digits below last year.
- Shanghai (BAI80) gained 6.6 percent month on month and then 7.7 percent week on week, leaving it about 6.6 percent above last year’s peak season high.
- Rates from Vietnam and Seoul to both Europe and the US also firmed, while flows from Taiwan and India show strength to the US but softness to Europe.
Europe outbound: mixed recovery
- Frankfurt outbound rebounded 9.6 percent week on week but is still roughly 24 percent below last year.
- London Heathrow gave back part of its sharp November gains, down 8.4 percent week on week, although it remains slightly above last year on a yearly comparison.
North America outbound: post-Thanksgiving bounce
- After holiday and weather disruptions, rates from the US to China, Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia rose strongly, with the Chicago index jumping 46.7 percent week on week, putting it back into positive territory year on year.
What is driving this
TAC Index links the firming market to a combination of:
- Structural capacity constraints, with delayed aircraft deliveries, limited feedstock for freighter conversions, and many existing freighters nearing retirement.
- Short-term capacity shocks, such as the grounding of aging MD-11 freighters after the UPS crash in Louisville right at the start of peak season.
- Shifting trade patterns rather than collapsing volumes; trade tensions between the US and China have rerouted flows via Asia–Europe, intra-Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, rather than eliminating demand.
- Cost pressures: crude oil is roughly 20 percent lower year on year, but a wider crack spread keeps jet fuel relatively expensive, so carrier margins are not expanding as much as headline oil prices might suggest.
Takeaways for NAP members
- Peak season discipline
Rates are rising into December across key corridors, especially out of China and North Asia. Expect continued yield pressure on tight lanes, but with less of the “panic spike” seen last year. - Lane and routing flexibility is a real asset
Strong China and North Asia exports to Europe, US, India, and Mexico reward partners who can switch routings quickly and use alternative gateways, especially in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. - Europe and US outbound still offer opportunities
With Frankfurt and Chicago still well below last year on many lanes despite recent jumps, there is room for tactical deals and creative backhaul solutions. - Use data to frame conversations with shippers
Referring explicitly to TAC Index BAI trends helps explain to customers why certain lanes are tight, where there is still value to capture, and why capacity constraints and fuel costs mean rates are not returning to pre-peak levels yet.
“Based on the latest Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI) data from TAC Index, as reported in TAC Index’s December market update, TAC Index, and recent coverage in AirCargoNews.net and globaltrademag.com”
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