Why 2026 Will Reward Prepared SME Forwarders
2025 has been a year that “fails to disappoint” for air cargo. Rotate’s analysis shows:
- 26 months of uninterrupted international air cargo demand growth
- 2025 YTD demand up ~3.9%
- Capacity up around 6%, driven by new widebody passenger aircraft and freighters
This is close to a historic record. But as Ryan Keyrouse, CEO and co-founder of Rotate highlighs, the key question for SME forwarders is no longer “Will demand grow?” but:
Where will it grow, and how do we position ourselves to capture it – lane by lane, customer by customer?
For Neutral Air Partner members, this is not an academic question. It’s about how you design your products, choose your partners, and talk to your customers in 2026.
Key Signals from Rotate’s 2025–2026 Outlook
What is changing:
- Trade flows have realigned, not collapsed
- US imports have shifted from China to other Asian origins after tariffs.
- China’s exports are increasingly directed to Europe and other Asia, with the Middle East gaining importance as a connector.
- Vietnam and Southeast Asia are no longer “alternative” – they are growth engines
- Vietnam’s air cargo demand shows very strong year-on-year growth, with capacity catching up via both direct and hub routings.
- E-commerce is rebalancing
- On lanes like China–US, the share of e-commerce in total air cargo has fallen from over half to closer to one-third, with general cargo returning.
- Capacity is growing, but not evenly
- Global capacity growth averages 6–7%, but some lanes are tight (e.g. parts of Asia–Middle East), while others are more relaxed (e.g. Europe–Asia in certain directions).
- Middle Eastern carriers have orderbooks roughly comparable to the rest of the world combined, implying a growing role for the region in global connectivity.
Long-term, we expect air cargo demand to grow roughly in line with global GDP (~3% annually), with South Asia and Southeast Asia outpacing the global average.
What This Means for NAP Members – By Subnetwork
Your role: Turn macro trends into sellable products for NAC and other forwarders.
Strategic implications:
- Productise growth lanes
- Build or expand consolidations ex-Vietnam and Southeast Asia into the US, Europe and the Middle East.
- Design fixed-day, fixed-transit-time products that forwarders can confidently sell to their shippers.
- Use data to negotiate with airlines
- Where demand is growing faster than capacity, secure uplift early.
- Where capacity is outpacing demand, create competitive offerings and long-term agreements.
- Support forwarders with clear structures
- Work closely with NAF members on service levels, documentation and communication, so they can present your products as reliable, repeatable solutions.
Your role: Bridge between airline capacity and SME demand.
Strategic implications:
- Translate Rotate’s data into airline conversations
- Show carriers where NAP’s SME demand is growing (Vietnam, South Asia, Middle East flows) and how you can help them fill new routes.
- Design capacity strategies around real demand
- Support airlines in developing or reinforcing hubs where NAP has strong membership and high-quality partners.
- Build joint campaigns with forwarders and consolidators
- Co-create lane-specific promotions on growth corridors (e.g. Asia–US via other Asia, China–Europe, Asia–Middle East), with clear value for shippers.
Your role: Trusted advisor to shippers, not just a rate provider.
Strategic implications:
- Multi-origin strategies are the new normal
- Help customers diversify from “China only” to China + Vietnam + other ASEAN origins, especially for sensitive verticals.
- Air is back on the table for high-value cargo
- With e-commerce no longer monopolising capacity, there is more room for general cargo, especially where speed and reliability matter.
- Use NAP’s footprint to de-risk supply chains
- Combine NAP partners in Asia, the Middle East and Europe to offer resilient routings and alternatives when tariffs or politics change.
Questions to ask yourself:
- Which of your customers are still over-exposed to a single origin country?
- Where can you use NAP partners to offer alternative routings via the Middle East or ASEAN hubs?
- How can you explain these shifts in simple language to your shippers?
Your role: Adapt to a more balanced mix of e-commerce and general cargo.
Strategic implications:
- Re-evaluate network design
- With e-commerce no longer dominating every lane, you can blend parcel-style flows with higher-margin B2B cargo.
- Focus on Europe imports and new consumer markets
- Rotate’s data shows e-commerce and raw materials driving European imports. This is an opportunity to design services for marketplaces and brands expanding into Europe.
- Stay ahead of regulatory changes
- Cross-border e-commerce is highly sensitive to rules and thresholds, so highlight your ability to keep flows predictable and compliant.
Your role: Provide stability when everything else changes.
Strategic implications:
- Own the “when things change overnight” narrative
- Tariffs, geopolitical events and ocean reliability can shift quickly. Position NAX as the go-to solution when shippers need immediate alternatives.
- Leverage NAP’s global footprint
- Use the community to create time-critical corridors that link key manufacturing centres with major consumption markets, with clear SLAs and communication.
Your role: Enable smarter, faster decisions for the network.
Strategic implications:
- Align your value proposition with these trends
- Show how your tools help NAP members select routings, manage risk, optimise pricing and maintain visibility in a shifting market.
- Support data-driven decision-making
- Integrate or interface with platforms that give members visibility on demand, capacity and performance, so they can react quickly.
This article gives you a high-level, strategic view of air cargo market trends 2026 for SME forwarders and the wider NAP community. For an updated industry overview with the latest data and trade lane insights, join us at OPENAP 2026 Marrakech, June 7-11, Morocco.
Ask NAP ecosystem-specific questions in person – NAF, NAC, NAV, NAX, NeX, NAS. Work with fellow members and airline partners to translate global trends into concrete strategies for your business.
