Key points
- Demand has outgrown capacity for most of the last 26 months, with CAGR at 10% for demand versus 6% for capacity since 2023.
- E-commerce and cloud computing accounted for roughly half of 2025 demand growth, adding about 727k tonnes and 314k tonnes respectively.
- China remains the main structural engine, with e-commerce exports exceeding 4 million tonnes in 2025 and accounting for more than 40% of Chinese exports.
- Middle East airspace closures directly affected 13% of global international capacity and resulted in a loss of more than 520k tonnes of international cargo capacity.
- Asia-Europe capacity has partly adjusted, but longer routings, corridor concentration and fuel inflation are raising operating costs and network fragility.
Neutral Air Partner is pleased to share the latest Rotate March 2026 Report, prepared by NAP’s strategic partner for market data analysis. The report is especially relevant for airlines, GSAs, forwarders, handlers and network decision-makers because it goes beyond headline growth and focuses on what is actually shaping the market: structural demand concentration, corridor imbalance, and disruption-led capacity risk.
The first conclusion is clear. The market remains demand-led, not supply-led. Rotate shows that demand has exceeded capacity growth for most of the last 26 months, with demand CAGR at 10% versus 6% for capacity since 2023. It also notes that air cargo demand matched its longest recorded FTK growth streak in February, before March disruption risk began to distort the picture.
A second important point is methodological. Rotate notes that 2025 growth figures vary materially depending on whether the analysis captures e-commerce flows, fast-growing charter and ACMI carriers, and whether growth is measured in tonnes or ATKs/FTKs. In its framework, demand growth was 8.5% with e-commerce included versus 6.5% without it, while international capacity growth was 5.2% across all airlines versus 3.3% excluding charter, ACMI and e-commerce operators.
Demand growth is increasingly concentrated in a few cargo segments
Rotate’s demand breakdown shows that e-commerce and cloud computing together made up half of total air cargo demand growth in 2025. E-commerce added roughly 727k tonnes, cloud computing 314k tonnes, followed by consumer goods, computers and parts, perishables and machinery.
For the market, this matters because growth is no longer broad-based. It is increasingly concentrated in specific flows with very different operating profiles. E-commerce drives dense outbound volumes, mainly from China, while cloud infrastructure cargo brings high-value, time-sensitive flows linked to data centre investment and tech supply chains.
China remains the dominant structural driver
Rotate’s China section is particularly relevant. It estimates that China’s e-commerce exports exceeded 4 million tonnes in 2025, with the strongest growth into Eastern Europe and Southern Europe, while North America declined after the end of de minimis exemptions.
The wider implication is even more significant. Since 2017, China’s air exports have more than doubled, e-commerce now accounts for more than 40% of China exports, and China now represents 40% of global air cargo, up from 23% in 2018.
This is also feeding directional imbalance. Rotate shows that the Asia-Europe demand ratio widened from 1.6x in Q4 2023 to 2.3x in Q4 2025, while the Transpacific ratio widened from 2.5x to 3.2x over the same period.
Cloud computing is now a major air cargo vertical
One of the report’s most valuable sections is on cloud computing-related cargo. Rotate shows that Taiwan-USA demand nearly quadrupled, with Taiwan exports up 192%, Vietnam up 100%, Thailand up 69%, and US imports up 150%, now representing almost 50% of global imports in this category.
The US import pattern is also concentrated. Rotate identifies Chicago, Los Angeles, California gateways more broadly, and Dallas as key entry points for cloud computing equipment, with Chicago alone handling 124k tonnes and posting +240% growth.
This is not just another tech story. It points to a structurally growing vertical with strong implications for gateway planning, premium handling, airport-to-inland coordination, and specialist forwarding.
Middle East disruption is now a capacity and cost issue, not just a geopolitical headline
Rotate’s third major theme is the impact of Middle East airspace closures. Its estimate is that the disruption directly impacted 13% of global international capacity, largely through the exposure of Gulf carriers and hubs.
The report further estimates that more than 520k tonnes of international cargo capacity were lost, with global capacity falling by as much as 22% when closures began, and remaining about 10% below expected levels afterwards.
There has been some operational adjustment. Rotate notes that direct Asia-Europe freighter capacity growth partially compensated for the drop in Middle East-Europe capacity, mainly through charter/ACMI operators, European carriers, Asian airlines and integrators.
But the network remains fragile. Rotate highlights that many Asia-Europe flights now depend on a narrow 150 km corridor through Azerbaijan, used by around 23% of global demand. Where aircraft reroute through southern Saudi Arabia, the report estimates +15% distance, +1.6 block hours, and roughly USD 0.22 per kg in extra freighter cost.
That pressure is compounded by fuel. Rotate shows that jet fuel prices rose more than 50% since the end of February, versus a 39% increase in Brent over the same comparison point.
What matters for NAP members
The main takeaway from the March 2026 Rotate report is that the air cargo market is still expanding, but the quality of that growth matters more than the headline number. Growth is concentrated in e-commerce, cloud infrastructure and selected specialist verticals. At the same time, corridor imbalance, airspace risk and fuel volatility are increasing the penalty for weak network design or slow operational response.
For NAP members, this reinforces three priorities: understand where structural demand is really coming from, monitor corridor-specific imbalance rather than relying on global averages, and stay commercially agile in lanes where disruption is now a recurring cost variable.
