This article is part of the NAP Air Cargo Market Outlook series, Neutral Air Partner’s data-driven analysis of global air cargo trends, powered by Rotate.
2025 Year in Review: Record-Breaking Growth Meets New Transatlantic Headwinds
Executive Summary : 2025 has exceeded all industry expectations, with international air cargo demand averaging +4% year-on-year growth. While the industry maintains its longest-ever growth streak, a newly announced wave of US tariffs targeting eight European countries—representing ~60% of Transatlantic demand—is set to test the resilience of the world’s 4th-largest trade lane.
Late-Breaking Alert: The Transatlantic Tariff Challenge
Over the past weekend, the US announced plans for additional 10% tariffs on eight European countries (Germany, Italy, UK, France, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, and Spain), bringing the total rate to 25% for most of the targeted states. Rotate’s consultants have identified critical trends to watch:
- The 60% Impact: The targeted markets represent approximately 59% of all westbound Europe-to-US air cargo demand.
- A Looming Surge: Shippers are expected to trigger a short-lived volume surge as they rush to move goods before any new tariffs take effect, potentially by June 1, 2026.
- Single Market Complexity: Because the EU operates as a single market, implementing selective tariffs on individual member states remains a significant legal challenge, and the EU is already discussing €93 billion in counter-measures on US imports.
A Market Defying Gravity: 2025 Performance
The year 2025 was characterized by demand that consistently outpaced forecasts. International air cargo demand growth averaged +4%, and the industry is currently nearing its longest stretch of growth in history.
- The 28-Month Streak: Since mid-2023, the market has seen 28 months of growth with an average rate of +7.9%, significantly higher than the 2013-2018 cycles.
- Inventory vs. Sales: Strong consumer spending has limited inventory build-ups, even as shippers front-loaded cargo to mitigate disruption.
- Operational Agility: Supply chains have proven resilient, reconfiguring to the new reality of tariffs within weeks.
Regional Powerhouses: Vietnam and South America
Specific trade lanes showed extraordinary momentum throughout 2025:
- The Vietnam Surge: Vietnam–USA air cargo demand recorded a staggering +86% year-on-year growth. Because direct capacity is insufficient, the vast majority of this cargo currently transships via North East Asia.
- South American Pivot: Exporters in South America significantly shifted their focus toward Europe in Q3 2025 as US customers reacted to import tariffs. Perishable exports to Europe grew by +16% (+6,000 tonnes), while exports to the US declined by -3% (-4,000 tonnes).
The E-commerce Engine: +42% Annual Growth
E-commerce remains the industry’s primary growth driver, with exports from China averaging a 42% CAGR since 2019. In 2025, total e-commerce exports are estimated to reach 2.9 million tonnes. While the USA remains the largest destination, other markets are seeing triple-digit growth:
- Hungary: +293% CAGR (2022–2025).
- Belgium: +124% CAGR (2022–2025).
- South Korea & UK: Both maintaining a steady +61% CAGR.
Strategic Insight: Production Moving Inland
One of the most significant long-term trends is the migration of Chinese production toward Central and Western provinces—such as Hubei and Henan—driven by lower labor costs and government incentives.
- Central China: Air cargo exports from this region grew by +97%, with capacity following at +70%.
- Western China: Exports grew by +52%, with capacity increasing by +43%.
Looking Forward: AI and 2026 Strategy
As we navigate these new Transatlantic pressures, NAP’s strategic partner Rotate is introducing new tools to help our members and global logistics professionals. Currently in beta, “Ask Rotate!” is a large language model designed to answer complex market data questions through interactive querying.
The focus for 2026 will be the re-alignment of supply chains following the latest US tariff announcements and the rising contribution of freighters as the market enters a more volatile phase.
